Labor and Daniel Andrews on track to win more seats than in 2018 ‘Danslide’

“Thank you to the other candidates … Most of all, thank you to my volunteers, colleagues, friends and supporters, but the biggest thank you of all goes to my family and my partner, Matt.”

Monash University senior politics lecturer Zareh Ghazarian said the November election represented a “remarkable” result that demonstrated the resilience of Labor’s support.

“This is lighting striking twice for Labor,” he said.

β€œIn 2018, it was the ‘Danslide’. I think commentators thought that was going to be a hard act to follow. While their primary vote went down, the actual number of seats they won did not.

“It’s a significant win and the government would be buoyed by this result. I’d expect them to argue very strongly that they have a mandate to implement what they promised.”

Ghazarian said published polling indicated a Labor majority was always the most likely outcome, even though polling close to the election suggested Labor could fall short of winning the 45 lower house seats required to hold a majority.

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Labor and Liberal insiders familiar with internal research believed up until election day that Labor was likely to win between about 42 and 48 seats.

The government lost hundreds of thousands of voters in the last election, which is common for a long-serving government, but its losses occurred in western and northern suburbs, where its seats are held by large margins that could not be reined in by opponents.

The Liberal Party lost support in eastern Melbourne seats such as Glen Waverley, and marginal seats across the east and south-east turned into safer Labor seats, casting doubt on the opposition’s ability to form government in the medium term.

If the 2018 election result was coined the “Danslide”, election analyst Kevin Bonham said on social media that the 2022 result could be nicknamed the “Danstasis”.

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