Russia-Ukraine tension to crude oil prices, list of factors to guide market this week

Stock market is expected to see volatility, guided by global cues, movement of the rupee, and crude oil prices this week. Market participants will be tracking the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which has been weighing on global sentiment for the past few weeks. Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd also said that there will be high volatility in the market net week because of the US and Russia meeting, continuous FIIs selling, and monthly F&O expiry, etc.

“Volatility is expected to remain high next week as well, given the crucial meeting between the US and Russia. Inflationary concern, continuous FIIs selling, and monthly F&O expiry could add to volatility next week,” Khemka told the PTI news agency.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek a resolution to the crisis. “I do not know what the president of the Russian Federation wants, so I am proposing a meeting,” Zelenskyy said at the Munich Security Conference, where he also met with US Vice President Kamala Harris

Geopolitical tensions and chances of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve have triggered foreign fund outflows from the Indian equity markets. The overseas investors have withdrawn a net 18,856 crore from the Indian markets in February so far.

According to Shibani Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, the other things that market participants will look forward to this week would be crude oil price and pace of earnings growth in India.

“Crude is on an uptrend and trajectory of crude prices along with inflation in India and globally and the pace of earnings growth in India would be the key factors to watch out for,” Kurian said.

Further, the ongoing elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, and Manipur will also be closely watched by the investors.

According to Milind Muchhala, Executive Director, Julius Baer India, the uncertainty related to Fed action, and the increasing expectations of a 50 bps rate hike in the March policy amid a persistently high inflation print, has been plaguing the markets.

On Friday, the BSE Sensex closed 59.04 points or 0.10% lower at 57,832.97. The NSE Nifty edged lower by 28.30 points or 0.16% to settle at 17,276.30. On a weekly basis, the Sensex lost 319.95 points or 0.55% and the Nifty fell 98.45 points or 0.56%.

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